Adapted by Barth Ikiebe.
In the South-South, the leaders have publicly endorsed Peter Obi, while the South East, is the home zone of Peter.
In the North Central (Middle-Belt) is prominently Christians who have been persecuted by Boko Haram & Fulani Herdsmen. Benue is a clear example of the commitment & prevailing sentiments of the people of the zone to Peter Obi’s Presidency.
Even in the South West, especially Lagos, it’s a battle between Tinubu & Peter Obi.
That’s 3 zones out of 6 where Tinubu can’t win or get the required 25% of the votes cast.
The remaining zones are North East, North West & South West.
Unfortunately for Tinubu, the South West is the most educated of the 3 remaining zones whose citizens are literate enough to make independent choices.
And to make matters worse for him, Afenifere, Gen Obasanjo & other influential & prominent Yoruba’s both at home & abroad have openly endorsed Peter Obi & have been working to actualize his Presidency.
Another headache for Tinubu is that the South West is prominently Christian.
Bola Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim ticket has been rejected by CAN, the umbrella body for Christians in Nigeria.
The implication is that Christians are less likely to vote Tinubu/APC Muslim-Muslim ticket.
Finally, the ability of Tinubu to deploy Bullion Vans to buy votes has been greatly hampered by the latest Buhari/CBN Currency redesign policy.
So it’s clear that Tinubu, not even being a respected & beloved politician among the Yoruba of the South West, like Bola Ige, is going to struggle in this election in the South West.
North-East states of Adamawa, Taraba, Borno, Gombe, Bauchi & Yola, present a special problem for Tinubu.
- Huge Christian population.
- Atiku factor.
Adamawa is a split of 50/50 Christian-Muslim population.
It’s Atiku’s home State.
So the battle will be between Atiku & Peter Obi. Obi will get more than the required 25% of votes cast. APC & Tinubu are mere onlookers here.
Taraba is a Christian State & the Gov has already made public statements that his people are pro-Peter Obi.
If anyone is going to take what remains of the vote here, it will be Atiku, not Tinubu with his Muslim-Muslim ticket.
Borno will be interesting for two reasons. It is the home of Shettima, the Muslim running mate of Tinubu.
But Borno was never conquered by Uthman Dan Fodio, the jihadist. It’s the reason why it has no Emir.
The problem for APC here is that Borno already has a population deeply disenchanted with the poor performance of APC. It was in Maiduguri that the convoy of President Muhammadu Buhari was first stoned.
Borno also has a huge Christian population. Chibok, where Boko Haram kidnapped the girls is a Christian community.
Shettima is always in the news talking about the Christians in Borno. It’s not for nothing. Bcos of their huge population, they are instrumental in who wins the State.
And Borno has suffered the most from the Islamic terror group, Boko Haram.
Will the Christians of Borno forget the kidnapping of their children by Boko Haram & incessant bombings & still vote for a Muslim-Muslim ticket?
This is why Borno will be an interesting place to watch.
I want to bet Peter Obi will pick 25% of the Vote cast in Borno.
Gombe is similar to Borno – a huge Christian population.
Will the failure of the APC Govt of Buhari & the Christian vote be sufficient for the people of Gombe to give Peter Obi the needed 25% of the vote cast?
Nobody knows.
Yobe will likely be a fight between Atiku & APC. Peter Obi doesn’t look to have any chance here at all.
The North West states are APC & Hausa Muslim’s homes & strongholds.
This is where is called the core Muslim North.
It has Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Jigawa & Zamfara.
It is this zone that provoked the Muslim-Muslim ticket & APC is expected to do well here, not on account of Tinubu’s popularity but bcos it’s Buhari’s zone (he’s from Katsina) & the Islam factor.
This is the most educationally disadvantaged zone in the country & the electorate is easily manipulated by religion.
APC is expected to have a landslide victory here for Tinubu.
Except in Kaduna.
Unfortunately for Tinubu, Kaduna has a 50/50 Christian/Muslim population. The Christian clergy are already mobilised for Peter Obi & have promised to deliver One Million Votes to Peter Obi.
It is the only State in the North West where Peter Obi will certainly get 25% of the vote cast.
Kano promises to be a battle between Kwakwanso & APC as the man is a son of the soil & probably the only State he can win for his Presidential ambition.
What is certain is that APC won’t get a single Christian vote in this zone.
The oppressed indigenous Christian communities of Katsina & Kebbi are not expected to vote for a Muslim-Muslim ticket. Deborah, the student that was murdered in Sokoto by Muslim zealots was an indigenous Christian of Kebbi State.
Finally Abuja. Abuja didn’t vote for APC in the last Presidential Election. There’s no reason it would on the 25th. The APC Govt has been a catastrophic failure. Peter Obi will have a landslide victory in Abuja.
I have taken time to analyse the political terrain & sentiments to show clearly that Bola Tinubu’s presidential ambition is overrated. He has zero chance of winning the election.
The political topography of Nigeria has changed & it has been reconfigured since 2015.
